🧯 What can't handle a big pot: Galfond's 5 mistakes

1. Naked two pair

Two pair with no redraw — no flush draw, no straight draw, not even a strong backdoor — isn't fit for a big pot. Even top two.

Example: K♣Q♦J♠7♠ (two pair, kings and sevens) on K♠4♥7♥ against a 13-out wrap with a flush draw J♥8♣6♥5♣ — 43.5% vs. 56.5%. Against a set, two pair has 22%.

The rule: don't raise naked two pair against an opponent's bet, except all-in. Play them passively and avoid big pots.

2–3. Weak flush draws and weak straights

In Omaha opponents have so many suited hands that a non-ace flush draw in a big pot is often dominated. Example: Q♥Q♦J♠3♥ (a queen-high flush draw + overpair) on 6♥8♥2♠ against A♥J♥7♠6♦ (a pair + nut flush draw) — 39.5% vs. 60.5%.

Same with straights: drawing to the third-best straight is much worse than it looks. It's easy to beat, hard to get value with, and paying for the right to make it is expensive. Check your nut outs, not all your outs.

4. Overpairs

In Omaha you don't have to c-bet just because you were the preflop raiser. A naked overpair on a wet board in a multiway pot is a weak hand: on J♣2♣9♠, naked aces A♠A♦7♥4♦ against a wrap with a flush draw Q♣10♦8♣7♠ and two pair K♥J♦9♦4♥ get 11.4%.

Ask yourself: by the river, will I be able to make a hand I'd want to play a big pot with? If the answer is "rarely", don't build the pot. With deep stacks, big value bets start on the later streets; the exception is top set with blockers and a flush draw.

5. Weak trips

On a K♠8♥8♠ flop you have an eight. A good hand — until your opponents start putting in big money.

The exact calculation: a random opponent hand on this board has an eight (trips or a full house) 17.2% of the time; if you hold one eight — 8.9%. Against real ranges that continue against bets — even more often, plus full houses with KK.

After a big bet on the flop, a call, and another big bet on the turn with a call, you almost certainly don't have the best hand.

Practice: flop matchups and pot odds.