⚔️ Flop matchups: who's the favorite and by how much
Overpair, two pair, set, wrap, flush draw — typical matchups in numbers · Advanced
In Omaha almost any flop matchup is closer to 50/50 than it looks. This lesson covers typical matchups with exact numbers: why naked aces lose to two pair 26 to 74, what backdoors add, when a wrap is a favorite against a set, and why an overpair is worth almost nothing multiway. All numbers were computed by our engine and match the PLO QuickStats reference to the hundredth.
The overpair: pretty but weak
Naked aces against naked two pair is one of a beginner's most expensive mistakes. The flop is K♠9♣6♦, your opponent has K♥9♥3♣2♠ (top two pair), you have A♥A♠7♥2♣: the aces have only 26.5%.
Now give the aces some "extras": two backdoor flush draws, a gutshot and a backdoor straight — A♠A♣7♣5♠ against K♣9♥3♠2♥ on the same board. Now it's 45.5%. Each backdoor flush draw adds roughly 2.5–3%, a gutshot 11–15%.
Takeaway: an overpair is a small-pot hand. If someone bets and raises into it and you have no extra equity, it's almost always behind.
Pair vs. draw
On a 6♥8♥2♠ board, A♠A♦K♥4♣ (aces without a flush draw) against J♥10♥7♠6♦ (a pair, a flush draw and a straight draw) — the aces are underdogs: 30 to 70.
On a 8♦9♠2♠ board, A♠A♣K♠3♣ (aces + flush draw) against J♦10♠9♣4♣ (a pair + open-ended straight draw) — now it's 60.5 to 39.5.
On K♠4♥7♦, top pair K♣Q♦J♠9♠ against a 13-out wrap J♥8♣6♥5♣ — 48.7 to 51.3. A pair against a big wrap is a coin flip. Give the pair a second pair (K♣Q♦J♠7♠) — 54.9%. Give the wrap a flush draw as well (board K♠4♥7♥) and leave the pair with its second pair — the wrap is now the favorite, 56.5%.
A set: strong but not invincible
Top two pair against bottom set — 22 to 78: 10♠7♥4♦3♣ against Q♥Q♦2♠2♥ on 10♣7♠2♦. Add backdoors to the two pair (Q♦J♠10♠7♦ against 3♥3♦2♠2♥) — now 32%.
A set against a 13-out wrap — about 60 to 40: Q♣Q♠10♣9♠ against 8♣7♦6♠5♠ on Q♥3♦4♠. But once the wrap gets the nut flush draw (A♦7♦6♠5♠ on Q♥3♦4♦), it's 50/50.
An overpair with a flush draw against a set — 35 to 65: K♠Q♠K♣7♦ against 9♣9♦8♣6♥ on 3♦9♠2♠.
Multiway pots
In a three-way pot equity is split more than you'd think. Flop J♣2♣9♠:
— A♠A♦7♥4♦ (naked aces) — 11.4%;
— Q♣10♦8♣7♠ (wrap + flush draw) — 65%;
— K♥J♦9♦4♥ (top two pair) — 23.6%.
The same aces but with the nut flush draw (A♣A♦7♥4♣) — now 39.9%: a live nut draw in a multiway pot is worth more than a pair of aces.
Preflop the logic is the same: big pairs against a low 7-6-5-4 rundown — 62.6% against rainbow, 59.5% against single-suited and only 56.3% against double-suited.
Practice: 10 matchups — estimate your equity against your opponent's hand class (you can't see his cards, just like in a real game).