📊 Equity and pot odds: when a call makes money

Equity is your share of the pot

Equity is the share of the pot that belongs to you if all the cards are dealt out. 40% equity means you win the pot on average 40 times out of 100 (ties are split).

In Omaha hand equities are squeezed toward the middle on every street. Look at the flop K♥8♥3♣: K♦K♠7♣2♦ has top set, A♥10♥6♣5♦ has only the nut flush draw. You'd think the set has a huge edge, but the flush draw has 29.6%. On a 9♣8♦2♥ flop, J♠10♦7♣6♥ has a 20-out wrap, and it's the favorite against a set of nines 9♠9♥A♦K♣: 54.4% vs. 45.6%.

Pot odds

Pot odds tell you how much equity you need for a call to pay off. Formula: needed = call / (pot after your call).

Remember three numbers:
— pot-sized bet — you need 33%;
— 2/3-pot bet — 28.6%;
— half-pot bet — 25%.

Example: the pot is 20 bb, the opponent bets 20 bb. You pay 20 to win 40 plus your own 20: you need 20 / 60 = 33%. With a flush draw against a set (29.6%), calling a pot-sized all-in bet is a loss, but against a half-pot bet it's already profitable.

Against a range, not a hand

You can't see your opponent's cards, so equity is calculated against a range — all the hands he plays this way. In tasks the opponent's range is set by VPIP: VPIP 15 is a tight player, only the best 15% of hands; VPIP 50 is a loose one, half of all hands.

The engine's numbers:
— A♠A♥7♦2♣ against VPIP 15 — 60.5%, against VPIP 50 — 61.5%. Naked aces are almost equally strong against any opponent;
— J♠10♠9♥8♥ against VPIP 15 — 46.4%, against VPIP 50 — 50.8%. A rundown is an underdog against a tight player because his range is full of aces.

Takeaway: a hand that's good against a loose table can be a losing one against a tight table — and vice versa.

Equity ≠ profit

Equity is your share of the pot if the cards are dealt out with no more betting. But in a real game the betting continues, and not everyone gets their share. This is called equity realization.

What lowers realization:
— playing out of position: you get put under pressure and fold hands that had equity;
— non-nut draws: you make your flush but lose to a higher flush and pay off on top;
— multiway pots: every bet can get raised by a player behind you.

What raises it: position, nut draws, initiative. That's why the same hand with 40% equity is a call in position and often a fold out of position.

Practice: 5 tasks on equity against a range and 5 on call or fold by pot odds.